Good Afternoon. It's a down week for the markets, especially for the tech stocks. Wall Street is turning increasingly jittery as AI disruption risks spread across a broader set of industries. Earnings remain strong, and macroeconomic data are mostly positive.

Below are the key things to note this week:

Softer CPI:

January CPI came in better than expected, extending the Treasury rally and bringing Fed rate cuts more firmly into play this year. Headline inflation rose 0.2% m/m, driven by softer gasoline and a rare decline in electricity costs. Annual CPI eased to 2.4%, the lowest since last spring.

Food prices rose a modest 0.2% m/m, with grocery inflation normalizing to 2.1% y/y. Shelter cooled to 0.2% m/m as rent pressures eased. Used-car prices fell for a second consecutive month, while new-vehicle prices remained contained, signaling limited tariff impact. Core goods were flat for a second month, trimming the annual rate to 1.1% despite dollar weakness.

Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, slightly firmer but largely in line with expectations given recurring January seasonality distortions.

Retail Sales Stall:

U.S. retail sales growth stalled in December as consumers hit the pause button. Retail sales were virtually unchanged following an unrevised 0.6% gain in November—an unwelcome stumble for consumers that started the holiday season at a solid pace. The consensus forecast was expecting a far stronger 0.4% gain.

Strong Non-Farm Payroll:

January payrolls surprised to the upside, with 130K jobs added—nearly double Bloomberg’s 68K estimate and well above December’s downwardly revised 48K.

The data suggests labor market resilience despite recent soft reports. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3% from 4.4%.

For the week:

CNN's Fear & Greed Index now stands at 36 (Fear) out of 100, down 9 points from last week. Details here

The top five trending stocks on Reddit are SPY, Amazon, Microsoft, QQQ, and NVIDIA. Read More

Liquidity:

Here is a summary of this week’s key economic releases:

Target Rate Probabilities for March 18th FOMC Meeting:

Anthropic at $380bn valuation: Anthropic closed a $30B funding round at a $380B post-money valuation — marking the second-largest private tech raise on record, behind OpenAI’s $40B+ round last year. The round was led by Coatue and GIC, with participation from Microsoft and Nvidia.

Bank CEO Compensation: CEOs of the largest U.S. banks collectively earned $258 million in 2025, as a resilient economy and strong Wall Street activity drove their institutions to record performance. Read

Rising Electric Bill: Electricity prices rose 6.9% YoY in 2025—more than double the 2.9% headline inflation rate, per Goldman Sachs. The bank expects continued growth through the end of the decade, with data centers accounting for 40% of demand growth. Higher power costs will erode disposable income, weigh on consumer spending, and modestly slow economic growth. Read

Asset Managers Merger: Schroders agreed to a £9.9bn takeover by a US investor, ending over 200 years of family control at the historic UK asset manager. Chicago-based Nuveen will acquire the firm, creating one of the world’s largest fund managers with ~$2.5tn (£1.8tn) in AUM. Read

U.S. Consumer Delinquencies Rise: Delinquency rates rose to 4.8% of outstanding U.S. household debt in Q4, the highest since 2017. Mortgage stress in lower-income zip codes and student-loan defaults drove the increase. Total household debt climbed 1% QoQ to $18.8T, while the share of credit-card balances 90+ days past due jumped to 12.7%. Read

Gilead Beat: Q4 revenue rose 5% YoY to $7.9B, with ex-Veklury product sales up 7% to $7.7B. HIV sales increased 6% to $5.8B, driven by Biktarvy (+5% to $4.0B) and Descovy (+33% to $819M) on higher pricing and PrEP demand. Liver Disease grew 17% to $844M, led by Livdelzi. Veklury declined 37% to $212M amid lower COVID hospitalizations. Cell Therapy fell 6% to $458M, with Yescarta and Tecartus both down.

Coca-Cola Miss: Q4 net revenues rose 2% to $11.8B, with organic growth of 5%. Comparable operating margin expanded 48 bps YoY to 24.4%, while currency-neutral comparable operating income increased 13%. GAAP operating income declined 32% due to a $960M BODYARMOR trademark impairment. GAAP EPS was $0.53 (+4%), and comparable EPS reached $0.58 (+6%). The company gained value share in global NARTD beverages for both Q4 and the full year.

Cisco Beat: Record revenue of $15.3B with double-digit revenue and EPS growth, exceeding guidance. Product orders rose 18% YoY, with networking orders accelerating above 20%. GAAP gross margin was 65.0% (67.5% non-GAAP). GAAP operating margin reached 24.6% (34.6% non-GAAP), above the high end of guidance. AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers totaled $2.1B. Dividend increased to $0.42 per share.

T-Mobile Mixed: Revenue increased 11% YoY to $24.3B, with service revenue up 10% to $18.7B. Diluted EPS was $1.88, including a $0.26 severance impact. Q4 postpaid net adds reached 2.4M; broadband adds were 558K, including 495K from 5G. Earned first-ever J.D. Power top network quality ranking in five of six U.S. regions. Q4 Core Adj. EBITDA was $8.4B; Adj. FCF $4.2B. 2026 guides Core Adj. EBITDA of $37.0–$37.5B and Adj. FCF of $18.0–$18.7B.

McDonald’s Beat: Q4 global comparable sales rose 5.7%, with positive guest counts across all segments. Revenue increased 10% to $7.0B (+6% constant currency). Diluted EPS was $3.03; adjusted EPS was $3.12, excluding restructuring. Systemwide sales grew 11% in Q4, with full-year sales surpassing $139B. Quarterly dividend increased 5% to $1.86. Loyalty sales reached nearly $37B, with ~210M 90-day active users at year-end.

Applied Materials Beat: Revenue was $7.01B, down 2% YoY, with GAAP gross margin at 49.0% and non-GAAP at 49.1%. GAAP EPS rose 75% YoY to $2.54, while non-GAAP EPS was flat at $2.38. Semiconductor Systems posted a record in DRAM revenue, and Applied Global Services achieved a record in services and spares revenue. Operating cash flow was $1.69B, with $702M returned to shareholders ($337M buybacks; $365M dividends).

Arista Networks Beat: Q4 revenue rose to $2.49B, up 7.8% QoQ and 28.9% YoY, with non-GAAP operating margin at 47.5%. The company launched its R4 AI/data center series, acquired Broadcom’s VeloCloud SD-WAN portfolio, surpassed 150M cumulative ports shipped, and delivered over $1B in quarterly non-GAAP net income.