Good Afternoon. Markets recovered strongly thanks to positive geopolitical news and strong bank earnings. The macro data was also positive, with producer prices rising less than expected, which is good for inflation.

Below are the key things to note this week:

Nasdaq Caps Best Week Since 1992: The Nasdaq Composite rose for a 13th straight session Friday, its longest winning streak since 1992, closing the week up 6.8% as Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent WTI crude down 14% and lifted the S&P 500 above 7,100 for the first time. The Nasdaq has now doubled since May 2023 and is up 60% from its March 30 Liberation Day trough; the Russell 2000 also hit an intraday record, signaling the rally is broadening beyond mega-cap tech

Focus mostly on earnings: President Trump said today that the talks between Iran and the US will resume in Pakistan on Monday. It seems the war is mostly over, and the markets will now shift to strong earnings, which must drive equities higher. This week’s bank earnings were strong with no visible signs of weakness. More on this in curated insights.

For the week:

CNN's Fear & Greed Index now stands at 68 (Greed) out of 100, up 30 points from last week. Details here

The top five trending stocks on Reddit are SPY, Microsoft, Tesla, NVIDIA, and DTE Energy. Read More

Liquidity:

Here is a summary of this week’s key economic releases:

Target Rate Probabilities for April 29th FOMC Meeting:

Cerebras Files $2B AI Chip IPO: AI chipmaker Cerebras filed for an estimated $2 billion IPO on Friday, its second attempt after canceling an October 2025 listing. The filing came a day after reports that OpenAI agreed to spend over $20 billion on Cerebras chips over three years in exchange for an equity stake. Cerebras was last valued at $8.1 billion in a September 2025 funding round; customers include OpenAI and Amazon. SpaceX and Anthropic are also preparing listings. Read

Kraken Buys Bitnomial in $550M Deal: Kraken agreed to acquire derivatives firm Bitnomial for up to $550 million, with closing expected by June. Bitnomial is the first U.S. crypto-native business to hold all three CFTC licenses — exchange, clearinghouse, and brokerage — enabling Kraken to offer spot margin, perpetuals, and options to U.S. clients under regulated infrastructure. The deal follows Kraken’s $1.5 billion NinjaTrader acquisition in March 2025 and four smaller tuck-ins through year-end. Kraken recently received a Federal Reserve master account and filed confidentially for an IPO. Read

OpenAI Buys Fintech Hiro in Acqui-Hire: OpenAI acquired AI personal finance startup Hiro, its second fintech purchase after buying personal finance app Roi in October. Hiro, founded by Digit founder Ethan Bloch, billed itself as an “AI personal CFO” and managed over $1 billion in client assets. The entire Hiro team is joining OpenAI; the app shuts down April 20, with user data export available through May 13. Terms were not disclosed. The back-to-back deals signal AI firms are pushing into financial services directly rather than waiting for banks to adopt their tools — OpenAI already counts Morgan Stanley and BNY Mellon as major partners. Read

SEC Scraps $25K Day-Trading Rule: The SEC approved eliminating the Pattern Day Trader rule, which required traders executing 4 or more day trades per week to maintain $25,000 in account equity, and replacing it with an intraday margin framework. The change lifts a two-decade barrier for small retail accounts and sent Robinhood up 6% Friday to $92, with Webull and other brokers rallying. Charles Schwab separately announced it is relaxing intraday trading rules and launching a spot crypto platform by mid-2026. Read

Goldman Sachs Beat: Net revenues rose 14% YoY to $17.23B, the second-highest quarterly total in firm history, as Global Banking & Markets set a record $12.7B with advisory fees up 89% on completed volumes. EPS of $17.55 cleared $16.47 estimates, with ROE of 19.8% and ROTE of 21.3%. Equities trading delivered a record $5.33B (+27% YoY), while fixed income fell 10% to $4.01B on rates, mortgage, and credit weakness. The firm returned $6.4B to shareholders during the quarter.

BlackRock Beat: Revenue rose 27% YoY to $6.70B with adjusted EPS of $12.53 ahead of $11.48 estimates, as AUM climbed to a record $13.9T. Quarterly net inflows of $130B marked a five-year Q1 high, led by record iShares flows alongside active and private markets contributions. LTM organic base fee growth hit 10% as the GIP and HPS integrations shifted mix toward higher-fee private credit and infrastructure. GAAP diluted EPS of $14.06 reflected one-time gains tied to acquisition accounting.

Citi Beat: Revenue rose 14% YoY to $24.6B — the strongest quarterly top-line in a decade — with net income up 42% to $5.8B and diluted EPS of $3.06, clearing $2.64 estimates. Markets revenue crossed $7B (+19%) as equities climbed nearly 40%, while Services rose 17% on TTS strength. Banking fees grew 12% on a record Q1 for M&A, Wealth revenue rose 11%, and RoTCE hit 13.1%. The bank returned $7.4B in capital and scheduled a May Investor Day as 90% of transformation initiatives are near the target state.

J&J Beat: Worldwide sales rose 9.9% YoY to $24.06B with adjusted operational growth of 6.4%, as Pharmaceutical climbed 11.2% to $15.4B, led by Darzalex ($4.0B) and Tremfya ($1.6B). Adjusted EPS of $2.70 beat $2.66 estimates while GAAP EPS of $2.14 reflected acquisition and restructuring costs. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to $100.8B in sales at midpoint (+7%) and adjusted EPS to $11.55 (+7.1%). The quarter included FDA approvals for ICOTYDE, TECVAYLI plus DARZALEX FASPRO, and TECNIS PureSee.

JPMorgan Beat: Managed revenue rose 10% YoY to $50.5B with net income up 13% to $16.5B and EPS of $5.94, beating $5.45 estimates, as ROTCE hit 23%. Markets’ revenue set an $11.6B record (+20%), with fixed income up 21% on commodities, credit, currencies, and EM and equities up 17% to $4.5B. Investment banking fees jumped 28% on a deal-making rebound. Full-year 2026 NII guidance was trimmed to ~$103B from $104.5B. Dimon flagged “an increasingly complex set of risks” facing the global economy.

Wells Fargo Mixed: Revenue rose 6% YoY to $21.45B but missed the $21.76B consensus as NIM compressed 20bps YoY to 2.47% on deposit mix and Markets asset drag. GAAP diluted EPS of $1.60 beat $1.58 estimates while adjusted EPS of $1.56 fell short. Net income rose 7% to $5.3B, with Markets up 19% and WIM up 14%, offset by a 21% drop in CRE on a prior-year gain. Full-year 2026 NII guidance held at ~$50B, and management warned that higher energy prices could pressure consumer spending in H2.

ASML Beat: Net sales rose 13% YoY to €8.8B, ahead of €8.5B consensus, with gross margin of 53.0% at the high end of guidance and EPS of €7.15 ($8.37 per ADR vs $7.72 expected). Operating profit grew 15% to €3.2B; China accounted for 19% of sales, down from 33% in 2025. Q2 guide set at €8.4–9.0B with 51–52% gross margin; full-year 2026 sales outlook raised to €36–40B from €34–39B. Free cash flow was negative €2.6B due to heavy investment, with €1.1B in buybacks.

Bank of America Beat: Revenue rose 7% YoY to $30.3B with EPS of $1.11, clearing $1.01 estimates — the highest quarterly figure in roughly two decades. NII rose 9% to $15.7B, equities trading surged 30% to $2.83B (best quarter in fifteen years), and investment banking fees jumped 21% to $1.8B. Fixed income was the lone miss at $3.5B, ~$330M short of forecasts. The loan-loss provision of $1.3B undershot estimates of intact borrower health, and the efficiency ratio improved to 61% with 2.9% operating leverage.

Morgan Stanley Beat: Revenue rose 16% YoY to a record $20.6B with EPS of $3.43, beating $3.04 estimates and ROTCE of 27.1%. Institutional Securities generated $10.7B; equity trading set a $5.1B record, and fixed income hit a post-crisis high of $3.4B. Advisory revenue of $978M rose 74% YoY on completed M&A. Wealth Management delivered $118B in net new assets and $54B in fee-based flows. CET1 stood at 15.1%, $1.75B of stock was repurchased, and the EquityZen acquisition closed during the quarter.

Abbott Mixed: Revenue rose 7.8% YoY to $11.16B (comparable +3.7%) ahead of $11.0B consensus, driven by a 13% MedTech increase and the Exact Sciences acquisition completed March 23. Adjusted EPS of $1.15 landed in-line with company guidance but just under the $1.16 Street consensus; GAAP EPS of $0.61 fell ~19% on higher operating and acquisition-related costs. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was trimmed to $5.38–$5.58 from $5.55–$5.80 to reflect $0.20 of Exact Sciences dilution; comparable sales growth reaffirmed at 6.5–7.5%.

Netflix Beat: Revenue rose 16% YoY to $12.25B, ahead of $12.18B consensus, with diluted EPS of $1.23 vs $0.76 guidance, driven by the $2.8B Warner Bros. termination fee recognized in interest and other income. Operating income grew 18%, net income rose 83% to $5.28B, and FCF reached $5.09B. Full-year 2026 revenue guide maintained at $50.7–51.7B with 31.5% operating margin; FCF guide raised to ~$12.5B from $11B. Ad revenue remains on track to double to $3B in 2026. Co-founder Reed Hastings will step down from the board in June.

PepsiCo Beat: Net revenue rose 8.5% YoY to $19.44B with organic revenue up 2.6%, ahead of the $18.95B consensus, as North America's convenience food volume increased. Core EPS of $1.61 beat $1.55 estimates (+9% YoY), diluted EPS rose 27% to $1.70, and operating profit climbed 24% to $3.2B with margin expanding to 16.5%. Full-year 2026 guidance was affirmed with a 4% dividend increase beginning in June. Recent U.S. snack price cuts drove demand recovery; relaunches of Lay's, Tostitos, Gatorade, and Quaker are underway.

Schwab Mixed: Net revenue rose 16% YoY to a record $6.48B but fell short of the $6.62B Street forecast, while adjusted EPS of $1.43 beat $1.42 estimates (+40% YoY). Record daily average trades of 9.9M (+34%) and 1.3M new brokerage accounts (+10%) drove growth; bank lending rose 29%, and margin loans grew 13% from year-end. Core net new assets hit a Q1 record $158B, lifting total client assets to $11.8T. The quarterly dividend was raised 19% to $0.32, and $2.4B was returned via buybacks. Shares fell ~8% post-print.

TSMC Beat: Revenue rose 35.1% YoY to NT$1,134B ($35.9B), above the $34.6–35.8B guidance range, as gross margin expanded 3.9 points to 66.2% and operating margin hit 58.1%. Diluted EPS of NT$22.08 ($3.49 per ADR) grew 58% YoY, beating NT$20.88 estimates. Advanced nodes (7nm and below) reached 74% of wafer revenue, with 3nm at 25% on HPC/AI demand. Q2 guide of $39–40.2B implies ~35% YoY growth; full-year revenue outlook raised to “above 30%” from “roughly 30%.” Capex biased to the high end of $52–56B.