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Weekly Newsletter
💎 Premium Consumer Is Doing Great
📈 Fresh Record Highs For S&P500 & Nasdaq
🤖 AI Capex Broadened Beyond Chips
🧾 Major Tech Earnings Next Week
🏦 FOMC Expected To Keep Rate Unchanged Next Week
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“One way or the other, the oil is getting out. Saudi Arabia has the pipelines to get 6 to 7 million barrels a day out. I think there's also going to be increased production from other places. And I think, unfortunately, Washington is being forced to kind of look the other way with regard to Russia selling oil to China and India. And I think that's taking some of the pressure off. So this could be a kind of stalemate situation, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that’s going to cause a recession or create some problems for the U.S. economy. The earnings story is still good.” - Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research founder
KEY US ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK:
MARKET CLOSE:
WEEKLY MARKET WRAP:
Good Afternoon. Positive week for markets with the Nasdaq gaining 1.5%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs. As I mentioned last week, earnings took center stage from geopolitics. Intel is carrying most of the weight this week. Next week is crucial with multiple major tech earnings. The majority of the earnings this week were strong as expected. More on this in the curated insights section.
For the week:
The S&P 500 is up 0.55%, the Nasdaq is up 1.50%, and the Dow 30 is down 0.44%.
CNN's Fear & Greed Index now stands at 66 (Greed) out of 100, down 2 points from last week. Details here
The top five trending stocks on Reddit are AMD, SPY, NVIDIA, Intel, and Microsoft. Read More
Liquidity:
Banking Reserves + ON RRP: Banking reserves remain at approximately $2.9 trillion. ON RRP balance remains immaterial.
Standing Repo Operations: The New York Fed’s standing repo operation (primarily reflecting SRF take-up) is zero.
Here is a summary of this week’s key economic releases:
Target Rate Probabilities for April 29th FOMC Meeting:
CURATED INSIGHTS & ANALYSIS:
What This Week's Earnings Said About the Economy
The premium consumer is accelerating, not slowing.
The companies closest to the high-end consumer all came in stronger than expected. AmEx's read was the cleanest: spend growth at a three-year high, with no evidence of stress in either credit or behavior.
Younger cohorts are doing the heaviest lifting. Gen Z and Millennials are now driving spend growth at multiples of older cohorts — the opposite of the conventional “K-shape stuck at the bottom” narrative.
Discretionary categories — luxury, dining, premium travel — held up despite the geopolitical noise. The consumer is choosing experiences and trade-up, not retreat.
P&G corroborated from the other end of the income spectrum: volumes finally inflected positive across all categories with pricing still holding. The mass consumer is paying for performance, not defaulting to private label.
Healthcare insurers reported pricing finally outrunning utilization — a quiet but important signal that medical inflation, the most stubborn component of services inflation, is plateauing.
The Middle East conflict is a margin and capex story, not a consumption story.
No company this week saw the conflict translate into a real consumption pullback. The hit is showing up in cost structures, not demand.
P&G framed it most clearly: oil at $100 versus the mid-60s pre-conflict cascades into reformulations, alternative sourcing, longer logistics lanes, and a list of feedstock substitutions — not just a higher commodity line.
Aerospace was the lone segment to take down outlooks — air traffic disruption to the Middle East is real and measurable, but the rest of the global network kept flying. Travel desk activity around rebookings was a one-week event, not a behavioral shift.
Companies are choosing margin protection over growth claims they can no longer defend. Several beats came with held or trimmed guidance even when the operating story was clean.
The capex cycle is being recalibrated upward in real time — defense, energy infrastructure, AI compute — while consumer-facing companies absorb costs at the margin. That mix shift matters more than any single quarter's print.
AI capex has decisively broadened beyond chips.
For the first time, the AI buildout is showing up in revenue lines well outside semiconductors. Power, cooling, transformers, wafer-fab equipment, advanced packaging, analog — all up sharply, all citing AI as the structural driver.
Intel's call captured the shift most cleanly: as AI moves from training to inference to agentic workloads, the CPU is reclaiming the orchestration layer. The CPU-to-GPU ratio is moving from heavily skewed toward GPU back toward parity. That re-rates the entire server CPU market.
GE Vernova's data center order book is now the most concrete real-economy signal of AI capex this side of Nvidia — the AI buildout has become a power-and-grid problem, not just a compute problem.
Hyperscaler commitments have shifted from annual budget cycles to multi-year, foundry-locked deals. That is a different category of demand — harder to pull back, easier for suppliers to invest against.
The buyers of AI are leaning in, too. Insurers, banks, card networks, consumer staples — all flagged meaningful internal AI investment programs, with early productivity gains real enough to fund accelerated deployment.
Beat-and-fade is the dominant reaction pattern.
Multiple high-quality beats were sold off this week because guidance was held rather than raised. The market has stopped paying for the print.
Estimates have already moved up enough that clearing the bar is no longer sufficient. Only raised guidance triggers the bid.
Reinvestment narratives are being punished even when the ROI is credible. Tesla's capex hike for AI and Optimus, AmEx's marketing reinvestment, GE's caution on Middle East — all read by the market as “not raising” rather than “building optionality.”
That is the setup heading into next week's mega-cap prints. The names that beat will not be rewarded unless they raise, and the bar for raises is now visibly higher than it was three months ago.
FRONT PAGES:
Trump Eyes 90% Spirit Airlines Stake via DPA: Administration nearing a $500M DPA loan to bankrupt Spirit, with warrants for up to 90% equity and a board seat; hearing tentatively set for April 30. Follows the precedent of last August's $8.9B Intel stake and splits the GOP — Lutnick architecting; Duffy, Cruz, Cotton, Lee opposed. Spirit's losses widened after jet fuel prices doubled amid the Iran war. Read
Meta to Cut 10% of Workforce in AI Efficiency Push: Meta will lay off ~8,000 employees on May 20 and scrap plans to fill 6,000 open roles, per a Thursday memo. Third 2026 round, alongside 2026 capex guidance running as high as $135B — nearly double 2025's ~$72B — almost all earmarked for AI infrastructure. Tech sector layoffs now top 95,000 YTD, led by Oracle (30,000) and Amazon (16,000). Read
Fed Rate Cut Pushed to Late 2026 on War Inflation: A Reuters poll of 103 economists (April 17–21) shows a slim majority now expect the Fed to hold at 3.50–3.75% through September, vs ~70% expecting a cut by then a month ago. Nearly a third now see no cut at all in 2026, almost double the figure from the prior survey. The Iran war has crushed consumer confidence to a record low and erased the rate-cut bid in futures. Read
DOJ Drops Powell Probe, Clearing Warsh's Path: DOJ dropped its criminal probe into Powell Friday, removing the obstacle to Warsh's Senate confirmation. In Tuesday's testimony, Warsh denied promising rate cuts to Trump but called for "regime change" at the Fed. Powell's final FOMC is next week. Read
30-Year Mortgage Falls to 6.23%, Lowest Spring Print in Three Years: Freddie Mac's 30-year FRM fell to 6.23% from 6.30% — third straight weekly decline and lowest in three spring homebuying seasons. Rates had spiked to 6.46% in early April before easing on the fragile Iran ceasefire; the pre-war level was 5.98%. 15-year FRM at 5.58%. Pending home sales and refi activity have ticked up. Read
EARNINGS UPDATE:
Primal Thesis
GE Aerospace. Orders surged 87% to $23.0B; adjusted revenue +29% to $11.6B with engine deliveries +43% YoY. Commercial wins for 650+ engines, including American (300 LEAP-1A), United (300 GEnx), and Delta (60 GEnx). Services backlog: $170B, trending toward the high end of 2026 guidance. $1B U.S. manufacturing investment announced.
RTX. Revenue +10% organic to $22.1B; adjusted EPS $1.78 (+21% YoY) on Pratt & Whitney aftermarket and Collins OE strength. FY26 guide raised modestly: revenue +$0.5B, EPS +$0.10.
UnitedHealth Group. Revenue $111.7B (+2%); adjusted EPS $7.23, all four segments beat plan. MCR fell 90bps to 83.9% on pricing discipline and reserve releases. $1.5B AI investment underway in 2026. FY26 EPS guide raised to greater than $18.25.
GE Vernova. Orders +71% YoY to $18.3B; backlog +$13B sequentially to $163B (on track to $200B in 2027, one year early). Gas Power gigawatts under contract jumped from 83 to 100 GW. Electrification data center orders alone reached $2.4B in Q1 — more than all of 2025. FY26 guidance raised across the board: revenue $44.5–$45.5B, FCF $6.5–$7.5B (from $5.0–$5.5B).
IBM. Revenue +6% to $15.9B; free cash flow $2.2B (+13%) — highest Q1 in a decade. Software +8% (Confluent closed mid-March), Infrastructure +12% with IBM Z up 48% on the z17 ramp. Full-year software guide raised to "10%+"; GenAI now accounts for 30% of the consulting backlog.
Lam Research. Revenue $5.84B (+24% YoY) — third consecutive record quarter. Customer Support Business Group hit its first $2B+ quarter (+25% YoY). The 2026 wafer fabrication equipment outlook was raised to $140B from $135B, with a bias toward higher levels. Advanced packaging revenue expected to grow 50%+ in 2026.
Philip Morris. Revenue +9% reported to $10.1B; adjusted EPS $1.96 (+16%). Smoke-free now 43% of the total revenue. IQOS in-market sales +10.9%, with Taiwan reaching ~6% national exit share in March (~70% of HTU industry volume). Reported FY26 EPS guide updated to $8.36–$8.51.
Tesla. Revenue $22.4B with auto margins ex-credits expanding to 19.2% (from 17.9%). Berlin set a Q1 record of 61,000 units; battery-pack capacity remains the constraint. Cybercab pilot production started; Optimus production targeted for late July or August. 2026 capex raised to $25B+ for AI infrastructure and Optimus rollout. Terafab announced partnerships with SpaceX, xAI, and Intel, using Intel's 14A.
Texas Instruments. Revenue $4.83B (+19% YoY, +9% sequentially); gross margin +210bps to 58%. Industrial revenue +30%+ YoY across all sectors and geographies — the first quarter of broad-market reacceleration. Data center +90% YoY (8th consecutive quarter of sequential growth). The Q2 guide of $5.0–$5.4B is well above seasonal levels.
American Express. Revenue +11% to $18.9B; EPS $4.28 (+18% YoY); ROE 35%. Card spending +10% — the highest quarterly growth in three years — with Gen Z up 38%, luxury retail up 18%, and restaurants up 9%. Credit performance at 2019 lows. Multi-year NFL global partnership announced. FY26 guide reaffirmed at 9–10% revenue and $17.30–$17.90 EPS.
Intel. Revenue $13.6B (+9% beat); non-GAAP EPS $0.29 vs $0.00 guide. AI-driven businesses now 60% of revenue (+40% YoY). DCAI +22% YoY; Intel Foundry +20% sequentially with 18A yields ahead of internal targets. A multi-year LTA was signed with Google for Xeon and ASIC. Terafab's partnership with SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla announced using Intel's 14A process.
SAP. Revenue $11.19B (in-line with consensus); adjusted EPS $2.01 (+20% YoY) on cloud acceleration. Long-term cloud outlook reaffirmed.
Procter & Gamble. Net sales $21.2B; core EPS $1.59 (+3% YoY). Organic sales +3% with volume +2 points and pricing +1 point — broad-based across all 10 categories. FY26 guidance maintained but expected at the lower end on ~$1B after-tax oil cost headwind (mostly Q4). Restructuring on track: up to 7,000 non-manufacturing roles being eliminated through FY26–FY27.
EARNINGS PREVIEW:
Date | Symbol | Name | Time |
28-Apr | KO | Coca-Cola | Before Open |
28-Apr | TMUS | T-Mobile US | After Close |
28-Apr | V | Visa Inc | After Close |
29-Apr | ABBV | Abbvie Inc | Before Open |
29-Apr | AMZN | Amazon Inc | After Close |
29-Apr | AZN | Astrazeneca Plc | Before Open |
29-Apr | GOOG | Alphabet Cl C | After Close |
29-Apr | GOOGL | Alphabet Cl A | After Close |
29-Apr | KLAC | K L A-Tencor Corp | After Close |
29-Apr | META | Meta Platforms Inc | After Close |
29-Apr | MSFT | Microsoft Corp | After Close |
30-Apr | AAPL | Apple Inc | After Close |
30-Apr | CAT | Caterpillar Inc | Before Open |
30-Apr | LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | Before Open |
30-Apr | MA | Mastercard Inc | Before Open |
30-Apr | MRK | Merck & Company | Before Open |
1-May | BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway Cl B | -- |
1-May | CVX | Chevron Corp | Before Open |
1-May | LIN | Linde Plc | Before Open |
1-May | XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp | Before Open |
VIDEO’s OF THE WEEK:
The 10 Best AI Stocks to Own in 2026
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Every major company is investing in it.
By late 2025, AI was already an $800B market — growing at a pace that could push it well beyond $1 trillion in the years ahead.
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AI-enabled devices are multiplying.
Automation is becoming standard.
But here’s the real question…
When trillions flow into this transformation — which stocks stand to benefit most?
Our new report reveals 10 AI stocks positioned across the backbone of this shift — from the companies powering the infrastructure… to those embedding intelligence into everyday systems.
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This newsletter's content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment recommendations. All the opinions in this newsletter are personal and do not belong to any organization.
