Not Just Crypto Week -- It's Crypto 3+ Years

Good Afternoon. Markets ended the week on a positive note, with the Nasdaq posting a 1.5% gain, the best among the major indices. Overall, the macro data was positive with a slight expected uptick in inflation.

S&P 500 is trading close to its all-time high with extremely low VIX.

Source: Bloomberg

Below are the key things to note this week:

CPI Inflation:
Headline CPI inflation rose 0.3% in June, bringing the annual rate to 2.7% — the highest since February and still above the Fed’s 2% target. Core inflation came in softer at 0.2% for the month and 2.9% year-over-year, with the monthly figure coming in just below expectations. As a reminder, PCE is the Fed’s official gauge of inflation targeting (not CPI), which comes later in the month.

Stablecoin Legislation:
President Trump signed the GENIUS Act earlier this week in an event at the White House. The crypto industry is receiving a constant boost under this administration and is expected to propel the US into a leading position in terms of innovation and adoption in this space. The GENIUS Act becoming law is expected to spur the growth of USD-backed stablecoins in the coming years.

Crypto Market Cap Hit 4 Trillion:  
This week was dubbed “Crypto Week,” and it lived up to expectations, with the Crypto market cap surpassing $4 trillion. The current crypto rally is primarily driven by Bitcoin, and Altcoins have just begun to participate, which will continue to push the overall market cap. So the entire crypto market is now equivalent to the market cap of Nvidia. In less than a year since taking office, the new administration has pushed a crypto-friendly agenda. With more than three years still to go for this administration, it's clear that the crypto industry will continue to flourish until then and eventually come to mainstream acceptance. So, it’s not just crypto week, but 3+ years of crypto adoption still to come.

Dollar Ticks Up:
The US dollar is experiencing its worst start to the year in five decades, but received some reprieve this week. The higher CPI reading should keep the Fed on hold with rate cuts, which helped boost the Dollar.

Financial Times

Earnings Kick-off:
The earnings season kicked off this week on a positive note. As expected, banks reported strong results driven by trading revenue, thanks to the volatility in April, and provided positive guidance. A detailed summary of the bank's earnings is provided in the next section. All other major firms that reported, including Netflix, mostly beat the expectations.

• Weak Dollar Boost: The US Dollar is down ~9.5% this year, and it’s expected to boost the earnings of S&P 500 companies. Approx. 41% of S&P 500 companies’ revenue comes from outside the US, and a weak dollar will help these firms. Another positive for this earnings season to offset any tariff-related impact.

• Amex Results: Amex reported earnings this week, and the results show absolutely no slowdown in the card spending or any negative impact due to tariffs. This suggests that at least+ years the affluent consumer hasn’t been significantly impacted by tariffs and is continuing to spend as usual. It will be interesting to see what Visa and MasterCard report in the coming weeks.
   

For the week:

• The S&P 500 is up 0.59%, the Nasdaq is up 1.51%, and the Dow 30 is down 0.07%.

  

  Barchart

CNN's Fear & Greed Index now stands at 75 (Extreme Greed) out of 100, no change from last week. Details here

The top five trending stocks on Reddit are OpenDoor, SPY, UnitedHealth, WeBull, and Incannex Healthcare. Read More

Here is a summary of this week’s key economic releases:

Target Rate Probabilities for July 30th FOMC Meeting:

Crypto Surge: The crypto market cap crossed $4 trillion for the first time, fueled by an altcoin rally and US regulatory momentum. Options data indicate that traders are betting on further gains. Read

GENIUS Act Signed: President Trump signed the first major federal crypto law Friday, just as his family deepens ties to the industry. The bipartisan GENIUS Act, a top priority for Trump, sets clear rules to bring stablecoins into the mainstream. Read

Everything App: Coinbase unveiled the “Base App” — an all-in-one platform replacing Coinbase Wallet. It merges wallet, trading, payments, social, messaging, and mini apps, all built on its Ethereum-based Base network. Read

Systematic Funds: Goldman’s Futures Strats Group estimates that CTAs and other trend-following macro funds could pump $48 billion into US equities over the next 30 days. Read

New S&P Entrant: Block shares surged over 10% in after-hours trading Friday as the fintech firm prepares to join the S&P 500, replacing Hess. Read

JPMorgan: JPM pulled further ahead in H1, with profits topping $30B—more than twice its nearest rival—and a wider lead in IB revenue over Goldman and Morgan Stanley. Its market cap now exceeds BofA, Citi, and Wells Fargo combined. Read

Bloomberg

Wells Fargo Beat: Wells Fargo beat Q2 profit and revenue estimates but missed on net interest income and cut its full-year growth outlook. It now expects 2025 net interest income to be flat vs. 2024’s $47.7B, down from prior 1–3% growth guidance. This comes six weeks after the Fed lifted its asset cap. Read

JPMorgan Beat: JPM raised its 2025 net interest income forecast after strong trading and investment banking results drove a Q2 earnings beat. “The U.S. economy remained resilient,” said CEO Jamie Dimon, citing tax reform and deregulation as tailwinds. Read

Citigroup Beat: Citi shares hit their highest since 2008 after beating Q2 profit estimates and announcing plans to repurchase at least $4B in stock. Gains were driven by strong performance in trading and investment banking. Shares rose to $90.69, up 3% in late trading. Read

Morgan Stanley Beat: Morgan Stanley's Q2 net income rose 15% to $3.5B, driven by strong performance in wealth management and trading, beating the $3.2B estimate. Read

Goldman Sachs Beat: Goldman Sachs posted a 22% jump in Q2 profit to $3.72B, or $10.91 a share, beating estimates of $9.69, as trading revenue surged on tariff-driven volatility. Read

Bank of America Mixed: Bank of America beat Q2 profit estimates as market volatility boosted trading revenue and higher interest income supported gains. Banks broadly saw a trading windfall amid shifting U.S. trade policies and rising geopolitical tensions. Read

Netflix Beat: Netflix beat Q2 estimates and raised its full-year revenue outlook. Net income rose to $3.13B ($7.19/share) vs. $2.15B ($4.88/share) last year. Revenue grew 15.9% YoY to $11.08B, in line with forecasts. Nielsen data shows that its U.S. viewer share held steady at 8.3%—nearly double that of all Disney channels combined. Meanwhile, YouTube rose to 12.8% from 9.9% a year earlier. Read

Taiwan Semiconductor Beat: TSMC posted a 60.7% jump in Q2 net profit to a record T$398.3B ($13.53B), beating forecasts on strong AI chip demand. Its clients include Apple and Nvidia. Read

Abbott Beat: Abbott reported Q2 profit of $1.78B ($1.01/share), up from $1.3B (74¢/share) a year ago. Read

Amex Beat: American Express posted Q2 results boosted by record spending. EPS came in at $4.08, with revenue up 9% YoY to $17.86 B—both beating analyst estimates from Visible Alpha. Read