In partnership with
Weekly Newsletter
🏛️ White House Summit Signals Digital Asset Push
📈 Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High
🎯 NVIDIA And Jackson Hole Next Week
📊 Earnings Tracker — Large Caps Closing The Gap
💰 Key Takeaways From This Week’s Earnings
🏦 Key Takeaways From FOMC Meeting Minutes
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“We're about 92% of the way through earnings season for Q2. And of the 92% of companies that have reported, 64% have beaten their estimate by more than one standard deviation, which is one of the highest beat rates on record. But what's interesting is, because of these high beat rates, we've started to see 2027 consensus earnings lift by about 2%. So the market's implying around 390 to 400 consensus EPS for 2027, which is extraordinary earnings growth.” - Shawn Tuteja, head of ETF and Custom Basket Volatility Trading in Goldman Sachs
KEY US ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK:
MARKET CLOSE:
WEEKLY MARKET WRAP:
Good Afternoon. Negative week for the markets due to a spike in Treasury yields. The 30-year Treasury hit a 19-year high on Tuesday. When long yields spike, high-duration cash flows get repriced hardest. Tech has the longest duration, and the Nasdaq fell 2.05% versus the Dow's 0.85%. Treasury increased buybacks to help lower yields. I think this is the new normal. Markets will get used to higher yields. The post-GFC zero-rate era was the anomaly, not the current level.
Below are the key things to note this week:Trump's crypto summit signaled where digital assets are going. Trump hosted Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Kalshi, and Polymarket at the White House on Wednesday, alongside Nasdaq, NYSE, CME, and DTCC. He said the US has discussed plans to buy sizable amounts of Bitcoin and pushed Congress on the stalled CLARITY Act. Bitcoin briefly pushed above $70K. Strategy, Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood rallied. The inclusion of Nasdaq, NYSE, CME, and DTCC alongside the crypto natives is the tell. This is about integrating digital assets into the traditional market plumbing, not a speculative rally.
Nvidia and Jackson Hole back-to-back next week. Nvidia reports Wednesday; Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday. Nasdaq has already sold 3% into NVDA, so a clean beat and raise on AI capex could snap the correction. 69% of fund managers expect a neutral Warsh, which means neutral is priced in, and any surprise moves the tape. These two events decide whether August ends as a small correction or the start of something larger.
For the week:
CNN's Fear & Greed Index now stands at 55 (Neutral) out of 100, down 10 points from last week. Details here
The top five trending stocks on Reddit are SPY, NVIDIA, DTE Energy, Moderna, and QQQ. Read More
Liquidity:
Banking Reserves + ON RRP: Banking reserves remain at approximately $2.9 trillion. ON RRP balance remains immaterial.
Standing Repo Operations: The New York Fed’s standing repo operation (primarily reflecting SRF take-up) is $0.
Here is a summary of this week’s key economic releases:
Target Rate Probabilities for Sept.16th FOMC Meeting:
CURATED INSIGHTS & ANALYSIS:
Earnings Season Tracker - The gap is closing:
At 93% reported, the S&P 500 is running 1.6pp behind Q1's earnings pace — the third straight week of improvement, from 2.7pp in early August. The median constituent grew earnings +14.4% on +12.8% revenue with an 86% beat rate. Large caps are finishing the season stronger than they tracked through it, and the deficit against an exceptional Q1 is now marginal. S&P 500 Growth is the exception, slipping to 2.5pp behind on a +25.5% median — the only universe moving the wrong way this week.The broad market still leads, but by less. The Russell 3000 sits 4.9pp ahead of Q1's pace, down from a peak of 5.6pp a week ago, with revenue growth easing to +9.8% as a weaker late-reporting tail filed. Its +16.6% median still exceeds the S&P 500's, so the typical mid- and small-cap company continues to out-earn the typical large one — the margin story holds. What has changed is momentum: the convergence is coming from both ends, with large caps closing and small caps off their peak. A quarter that opened as a clean split is ending as a narrowing one.
Key Points from FOMC Minutes:
The Fed held rates steady at 3½–3¾%, but the vote split 9–3, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 bps hike.
The dissenters were Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan — all preferred raising rates immediately.
The minutes showed broader hawkish pressure beneath the vote: several participants favored a hike at the meeting, while many said further policy firming would likely be needed if inflation does not move lower.
The main concern was inflation breadth. Participants noted that price pressures looked broad-based, not limited to tariffs, energy, or isolated supply shocks.
Labor-market risk carried less weight this time. Employment conditions were described as stable, giving hawks more room to argue for a restrictive stance.
The debate has clearly shifted from “when to cut?” to “whether the Fed needs to hike again.”
The clean takeaway: this was not a neutral hold. It was a hawkish hold with a real tightening debate underneath.
For markets, the important signal is that the bar for cuts has moved much higher, while the bar for hikes is no longer theoretical.
Key takeaways from this week’s earnings:
A government refund, not the shopper, paid for retail’s profits
Walmart booked $2.9 billion in tariff refunds, Target $994 million, and Ross $253 million, all from tariffs the Supreme Court struck down. At Target, that was $1.65 a share, about 40% of reported earnings. Apple got a similar benefit last month. Retail’s profit beat this quarter came partly from a one-time government payment that will not repeat.
What each retailer did with that refund tells you more than the beat
Walmart put its refund straight into more than 11,000 price cuts, so its margin gain won't carry into next quarter, and its guidance came in soft. Target let most of its refund reach the bottom line and raised guidance. Walmart fell 9%; Target rose 4%. The same windfall, spent two different ways, produced opposite reactions.
The value shopper is slowing down too
Walmart’s U.S. comparable sales grew 2.6%, its weakest in about six years, and customer traffic slowed to 1.5% from 3% a year ago. Last week, On Holding showed the high-end shopper cooling. Both ends of the consumer are now losing pace at the same time, which has not happened at any point this season.
The AI buildout has reached farm and construction equipment
Deere’s construction and forestry sales rose 18%, and that segment’s margin climbed to 12.1% from 7.7%, helped by data-center and energy demand, and its CEO called the bottom of the farm downturn. Caterpillar said much the same three weeks ago. Data-center construction is now showing up in the results of companies that mostly sell tractors and excavators.
China is repeating America’s AI capex problem
Alibaba’s cloud revenue grew 45%, its best in 22 quarters, but capital spending rose 75%, and free cash flow swung to an outflow of RMB 44.7 billion. Its new capex was roughly 4.5 times its new cloud revenue, and the stock fell 9%. Baidu fell 13% on weak advertising. Chinese platforms are now being punished for the same spending that hit Meta and Alphabet in July.
FRONT PAGES:
Nvidia Secures 4.25 GW Ohio Data Center via SB Energy for OpenAI: Nvidia announced Monday a multi-year partnership with SB Energy Corp for the PORTS Technology Campus in Pike County, Ohio, entering multiple residual value guarantees covering approximately 4.25 GW of IT load. An OpenAI Group PBC affiliate will serve as anchor tenant. Nvidia values the commitment at ~$105B. Extends last month's $250B OpenAI backstop framework and the Wall Street $500B compute-financing platform. Nvidia's Q2 earnings on Wednesday, Aug 26, will be the next test. Read
Bitcoin Explodes 22% in Best Week Since March 2023: Bitcoin jumped from ~$62,800 Monday to touch $79,491 Friday intraday, ending the week around $77K — its strongest weekly advance since March 2023. The rally wiped out ~$2.7B in short liquidations. Triggered Wednesday by Treasury's expanded bond buyback intervention; sustained by record ETF inflows ($606M Thursday). Coinbase and Strategy also surged. Crypto Fear & Greed Index doubled from 34 to 72. Read
Bessent Doubles Long-Bond Buybacks; Yields Retreat: Treasury Secretary Bessent doubled the scheduled buyback of 10Y–30Y government debt Wednesday — an aggressive intervention to ease long-end yields after the 30Y touched its highest yield since 2007 Tuesday. The move triggered a synchronized rally across Bitcoin, gold, silver, and crypto-adjacent equities. Bessent signaled more intervention if needed. Mechanically similar to July's US-Japan yen intervention through the NY Fed — Treasury acting outside traditional Fed channels. Read
Moderna/Merck mRNA Cancer Vaccine Hits Phase 3 Endpoint: Merck and Moderna announced Wednesday that intismeran autogene, combined with Keytruda, met both primary and secondary endpoints in the 1,137-patient INTerpath-001 melanoma Phase 3 trial — first successful Phase 3 for a personalized neoantigen therapy or any mRNA cancer treatment. MRNA jumped 17% Friday. Leerink pegs $1.4B revenue by 2032; approval push next. Historic milestone that reopens the entire mRNA-oncology thesis. Read
SK Hynix Commits $28.6B to Buybacks Over Three Years: SK Hynix said Wednesday it will spend at least 50% of free cash flow generated from 2025 to 2027 on shareholder returns, including a 40 trillion won ($28.6B) treasury share buyback to be canceled — the largest capital return commitment in the company's history. Signals confidence in memory-pricing sustainability tied to AI capex. Sets a benchmark for peer memory names (Micron, Samsung, SanDisk) trading at expanded multiples. Read
EARNINGS UPDATE:
Walmart. Adjusted EPS $0.81 versus $0.74; revenue $187.9B, up 5.9% and a beat. E-commerce rose 23%, advertising 38%, membership 17%, and Walmart raised full-year guidance. But U.S. comparable sales grew just 2.6%, the slowest in about six years, with traffic up 1.5% against 3% a year ago, and $2.9B of tariff refunds drove much of the margin gain. Shares fell about 9%, their worst earnings day in years.
Target. Reported EPS $4.11 versus $2.35, but $994M of tariff refunds added $1.65 a share; adjusted EPS was about $2.46, a 6% beat. Revenue $26.5B, up 5.3%, with comparable sales up 3.8% against 2.4% expected. Target raised full-year guidance. Shares rose about 4%. Two straight quarters of growth, flattered by a one-time refund.
Deere. EPS $5.10 versus $4.69; revenue $12.6B, a 17% beat, and Deere raised the low end of its full-year profit outlook. Construction and forestry sales rose 18%, and that segment’s margin jumped to 12.1% from 7.7%, helped by infrastructure, data-center and energy demand. The CEO called 2026 the bottom of the farm-equipment downturn. Shares rose about 7%.
Alibaba. Non-GAAP EPS $1.26 versus $1.94, a large miss; revenue $39.6B, up 9% and a slight beat. Cloud revenue grew 45%, its fastest in 22 quarters, and AI product revenue grew triple digits for a 12th straight quarter. But capital spending rose 75% to RMB67.7B, free cash flow swung to an outflow of RMB44.7B, and net income fell 75%. Shares fell about 9%.
Home Depot. EPS $4.92 versus $4.73; revenue $47.9B, up 15% and a beat. Housing-linked demand held up better than feared. Shares were roughly flat on the day, then gained. Steady, in a week that punished bigger names.
Lowe’s. EPS $4.40 versus $4.22; revenue $26.0B came in slightly light. Professional-contractor demand carried the quarter. Shares rose about 2%. Good enough, in line with its larger rival.
TJX. EPS $1.22 versus $1.19; revenue $15.2B, roughly in line. Off-price traffic stayed healthy, but the print did not clear a high bar, and shares fell about 4%. Strong business, expensive stock.
Ross Stores. EPS $2.66 versus $1.95, including about $0.60 from tariff refunds; revenue $6.26B, a beat. Shares rose about 4%. The trade-down shopper is still showing up.
Baidu. EPS $1.06 versus $1.51 and revenue $4.61B, both missing, as advertising stayed weak and AI investment weighed on profit. Shares fell about 13%, the worst reaction of the week. China’s ad market has not recovered.
NetEase. EPS $1.77 versus $2.31, a miss; revenue $4.43B, a beat. Gaming revenue grew, but costs rose faster. Shares fell about 6%. Growth intact, profits squeezed.
Keysight. EPS $3.07 versus $2.48, a 24% beat; revenue $1.85B, up 7% and a beat, on demand for AI and data-center test equipment. Shares still fell about 6%. Another strong quarter the price had already assumed.
Analog Devices. EPS $3.45 versus $3.34; revenue $4.02B, up 11% and a beat, as industrial and automotive chip demand recovered. Shares were little changed. A quiet, clean quarter.
EARNINGS PREVIEW:
Date | Symbol | Name | Time |
24-Aug | PDD | PDD Holdings Inc | Before Open |
25-Aug | INTU | Intuit Inc | After Close |
26-Aug | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | After Close |
26-Aug | CRWD | CrowdStrike Holdings | After Close |
26-Aug | CRM | Salesforce Inc | After Close |
26-Aug | SNPS | Synopsys Inc | After Close |
26-Aug | VEEV | Veeva Systems Inc | After Close |
26-Aug | HPQ | HP Inc | After Close |
27-Aug | DG | Dollar General Corp | Before Open |
27-Aug | MRVL | Marvell Technology | After Close |
27-Aug | ADSK | Autodesk Inc | After Close |
27-Aug | WDAY | Workday Inc | After Close |
VIDEO’s OF THE WEEK:
Wish your car insurance was pricier? Didn’t think so.
Find out if another carrier could offer you a better rate. Compare your offers all in one place and get your best rate on LendingTree. Just answer a few questions and get your quotes in a matter of minutes.
Please Share This Newsletter With Your Friends.
Also, check my blog here.
This newsletter's content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment recommendations. All the opinions in this newsletter are personal and do not belong to any organization.
