Black Friday Sales Underscore Shoppers' Resilience

IN THIS WEEK’S NEWSLETTER:

🛡️ Key Points From Financial Stability Report
🏦 OCC, FDIC, Fed Confirm eSLR Changes
🛍️ Black Friday Sales Rise
🔎 Case For Google’s Dominance
📱 Apple Shipments Beat Samsung In 14 Years
📘 Key Points From The Fed Beige Book
💼 Earnings Season Recap

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“If the market believes it needs more rate cuts, it will force it—because we've become so financialized at this point. The Fed is now basically obligated to make sure that we have financial stability to some degree. And they also have an obligation to help Treasury fund the government. So I don't believe the Fed is independent. I believe they're trying to work, you know, in the best interest of Americans. I'm not saying they're dictated by the White House, but they are not independent of the markets. They're not independent of the funding requirements of the U.S. government.” - Mike Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley.

KEY US ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK:

MARKET CLOSE:

WEEKLY MARKET WRAP:

CURATED INSIGHTS & ANALYSIS:

• Earnings Recap:
  Below is the QoQ earnings comparison. Earnings were strong in Q3, with YoY growth similar to Q2.

  

  Primal Thesis

• Key Points from the Fed Beige Book:
  U.S. economic activity was broadly flat in recent weeks, with softer hiring in roughly half the Fed’s districts and a pullback in consumer spending — underscoring growing labor-market concerns ahead of the next rate decision. Below is the table showing the beige book recent trend. Nothing unusual as such to worry about:

  

  Primal Thesis

  • Little change overall: 2 districts modest decline, one modest growth, most flat/mixed

  • Consumer spending down; EV sales fell after tax credit expired; luxury travel resilient, international visitors softer

  • Lower/middle-income households leaned on discounts and promotions; price sensitivity was high

  • Manufacturing is mixed across districts; tariffs and softer demand are key headwinds

  • Agriculture, energy, and transportation are generally down to flat

  • Rate-sensitive sectors (housing, CRE, finance) mixed; some pickup in business lending on lower rates, but activity still muted elsewhere

  • Employment is largely stable with muted labor demand; more headcount cuts via layoffs/attrition; hours adjusted more than headcount.

  • Hiring tilted toward temps and part-time; labor supply is tight in hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing due to immigration changes.

  • Wages rising modestly to moderately; labor costs up on higher employer health-insurance expenses.

  • Prices up moderately; input costs faster (imports, insurance, health care, tech); tariff pass-through uneven—some absorb, others pass through fully

  • Some materials eased on weak demand (e.g., selected steels, lumber)

  • Outlook split: a few districts expect demand to firm over 6–12 months; many see uncertainty weighing; one highlights government shutdown risk
    

• Key Points from Financial Stability Report:
  Key Comparative Takeaways (April 2025 vs November 2025 FSR

  1. Asset valuations moved from stressed to elevated again — April highlighted broad price declines after trade-policy shocks, while November noted a complete rebound with valuations back near historical highs and equity risk premia well below average.

  2. Treasury market liquidity improved materially — April liquidity was at historically low levels amid sharp yield volatility; by November, Treasury depth had recovered to or above pre-episode norms across maturities.

  3. Borrowing vulnerabilities eased further — April showed moderate but uneven pressures, especially for high-yield and bank-loan funds; November emphasized business/household debt at 20-year lows relative to GDP.

  4. Household credit quality remained strong in both, but November highlighted rising auto and credit card delinquencies that persist above decade averages.

  5. Financial-sector leverage concerns increased in November — April, with noted vulnerabilities mostly around nonbanks; November explicitly flagged rising hedge-fund leverage across strategies and life-insurer leverage in the top quartile of history.

  6. Funding-risk narrative softened — April stressed elevated outflows in early April and vulnerability from cash-management vehicles; November reported moderate funding risks, declining reliance on uninsured deposits, and a stable MMF composition dominated by government funds.

  7. Stablecoin dynamics diverged sharply — April flagged continued growth and run vulnerability; November highlighted accelerated stablecoin market-cap growth and new regulatory clarity under the GENIUS Act.

  8. Near-term risk perceptions shifted — April’s survey emphasized global trade, policy uncertainty, and fiscal sustainability; November’s respondents focused on policy uncertainty, geopolitics, higher long-term rates, AI-linked asset-price declines, and persistent inflation.

FRONT PAGES:

EARNINGS UPDATE:

EARNINGS PREVIEW:

VIDEO’s OF THE WEEK:

Please Share This Newsletter With Your Friends.

Also, check my blog here.

This newsletter's content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment recommendations. All the opinions in this newsletter are personal and do not belong to any organization.